Norwegian special services have published a security assessment for 2026, in which Russia is named the main threat. The likelihood of sabotage against support for Ukraine and the intensification of Russian intelligence activities is increasing.
The Norwegian Intelligence Service (E-tjeneste), the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST), and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM) have released a joint assessment of the security environment for 2026 — "Nasjonal trusselvurdering for 2026". This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, writes UNN.
Details
During the presentation, Norwegian Minister of Defense T. O. Sandvik named Russia as the main threat to the security of the country and its allies.
The document emphasizes the growing hybrid threats from the Russian Federation, China, and Iran. According to Norwegian intelligence services, these states are increasingly combining intelligence and cyber operations, influence operations, sabotage, recruitment, and economic pressure.
This approach is systemic and aimed at a long-term undermining of the resilience of state institutions.
Separately, the intensification of Russia's intelligence and subversive activities against Norway and its allies is noted. Russian special services will focus on monitoring military facilities and NATO exercises, collecting data on support for Ukraine and the situation in the Arctic, as well as influencing energy infrastructure.
– intelligence reports.
At the same time, the likelihood of sabotage as a tool to hinder military and political support for Ukraine is increasing.
The assessment indicates an increase in strategic risks in the Arctic and an attempt to revise the status quo in the region. Norwegian intelligence services warn that any changes in the regional balance, particularly around Greenland, will have a direct impact on the actions of Russia and China in the northern latitudes.
In the recommendations section, E-tjeneste calls on government agencies and the private sector to move from reactive to proactive risk management.
Among the priorities are strengthening protection against espionage, sabotage, and cyberattacks, preparing business continuity plans in case of crises or war, and systematically using intelligence assessments in strategic planning. This approach reflects the perception of threats as long-term and structural.
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