The elections in Hungary could become not only an internal political struggle but also an important test for all of Europe. The high price for the current government, Russia's influence, and the use of administrative resources cast doubt on the full democratic nature of the process. Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi stated this in a comment to UNN.
Leaks and Russian influence – political technology
The latest information scandals and "leaks" surrounding the Hungarian government are not accidental. According to the expert, this is part of an internal political struggle, which at the same time exposes Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's dependence on the Kremlin.
Oleh Lisnyi explains that such materials appear at key moments and form the desired image for voters.
We see that these leaks are not accidental. This is the response of Orbán's opponents, but at the same time, they show a real model of relations: the junior partner performs the tasks set by the senior. And this fits well into the image that is now being tried to solidify – that Orbán is not an independent politician, but on the contrary, depends on Russia.
– he noted.
According to him, this is an effective political technology that works at the electoral level.
Will the elections be fair?
Despite the formal democratic system, the expert doubts that the elections will proceed without government influence. He emphasizes that control over key institutions and high stakes can lead to atypical scenarios. Lisnyi compares present-day Hungary to Yanukovych's Ukraine.
The elections will not be fully democratic because the price for Orbán is very high. He has a built-up system of power, people placed in key positions, and administrative resources will be used to the maximum.
– explained Oleh Lisnyi.
He particularly highlights the possibility of radical steps by the current government.
He might even cancel the elections if he sees that he is losing. For example, declare a state of emergency, use the war factor, create an artificial escalation… something like "war with Ukraine." Russian political technologists are very good at working with such scenarios. So I would not rule out such a development of events. Most likely, the elections will take place, but anything is possible. For Orbán, this is a battle for life.
– the expert stated.
Sociology and real chances
According to the latest sociological polls, the opposition party "Tisza" led by Péter Magyar shows growing support and is ahead of Viktor Orbán's "Fidesz" party. However, Lisnyi urges not to draw hasty conclusions.
Sociology is good, but we have seen many times when it did not correspond to reality. One should not wear rose-tinted glasses. We need to wait for the voting itself and see what the vote count will be.
– he emphasized.
Which political forces are participating?
The key struggle unfolds between Orbán's Fidesz party and the opposition force "Tisza." At the same time, other players are also present in the political field, including the "Our Homeland" (Mi Hazánk) party, which can take away some votes.
According to the expert, even small parties can play an important role.
There are also other political forces that do not claim victory but can draw away part of the electorate. This is also a technology used during elections.
– Lisnyi noted.
He does not rule out that if there are not enough votes, Orbán might enter into a coalition.
Even if the government changes, Hungary's course will not change.
The expert believes that even if the opposition wins, one should not expect rapid changes in Hungary's policy. The reason is the formed public demand and the long-standing anti-European and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric of the authorities.
Orbán has so demonized the European Union and Ukraine that it will not disappear overnight. This narrative has taken root in society, and the new government will be forced to work with it – either destroy it or partially use it.
– he explained.
Historical factor and attitude towards Ukraine
Lisnyi also draws attention to deeper reasons for the attitude of a part of Hungarian society towards Ukraine. This refers to historical traumas and imperial narratives that are actively used in politics.
This is spread throughout the entire electorate. Some people say it openly, some do not, but these sentiments exist. There is historical memory that is used as a political tool.
– the expert noted.
Expert's forecast – who will still win
According to the political scientist, the elections in Hungary will be an important moment not only for the country but also for all of Europe. Oleh Lisnyi did not make a direct forecast, as he believes that something can change every second.
I would say that the Hungarian people should win. This is their historical choice. The opposition has chances, but the main question is whether it can protect this result.
– Lisnyi concluded.
Recall
US Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Hungary to support Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during the parliamentary elections.
