Analysts predict a rise in oil prices due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures jumped, reaching multi-month highs.
Analysts expect oil prices to remain high in the coming days amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, assessing the impact on supplies, especially those through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for more than 20% of global oil volume, UNN reports, citing Reuters.
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Oil futures jumped more than 8% on Monday, reaching multi-month highs in the first trading session after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran and killed its supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and Tehran retaliated against Israel and at least seven other countries.
The attacks damaged tankers, and many shipowners, major oil companies, and trading houses suspended oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Citi analysts predict that in a baseline scenario, Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate between $80 and $90 per barrel for at least the next week, according to their note. The bank expects prices to fall to $70 per barrel after de-escalation.
Goldman Sachs estimates a real-time risk premium of $18 per barrel, according to a bank note published on Sunday. The bank expects this impact to decrease to $4 if only 50% of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month.
"However, oil prices could rise significantly if the market demands a risk premium for more prolonged supply disruptions," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
Wood Mackenzie said oil prices could potentially exceed $100 per barrel if tanker passage through the strait is not quickly restored.
"The disruption creates a double supply shock: not only are current exports through the strait halted, but additional OPEC+ supply volumes, and ultimately much of OPEC's spare capacity – usually a key lever for balancing the global oil market – become unavailable as long as the waterway remains closed," Woods analytics said.
OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April.
Societe Generale analysts said on Monday that the most likely scenario for oil prices is a short-term jump followed by a partial decline, as markets recognize the continuity of supplies as reliable.
Bernstein raised its 2026 Brent oil price forecast from $65 to $80 per barrel but predicts that in the extreme case of a prolonged conflict, prices will reach $120-150 per barrel.
Oil price jumps 10% after strikes on Iran, possible surge to $100 a barrel – Reuters02.03.26, 02:42 • 34732 views
As The Guardian notes, Brent crude oil prices jumped as much as 13% during early trading – to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high – as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries for global trade, heightened concerns about oil supplies. Subsequently, oil prices somewhat declined from their initial highs.
However, the rise in oil prices led to a roughly 6% increase in the shares of oil companies Shell and BP. Shares of arms manufacturer BAE Systems jumped 7% as investors invested in defense companies' stocks.
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