The end of winter and the beginning of spring is traditionally the period when grain reserves from the previous season decrease, and the new harvest is still far away, which cannot but affect the price of cereals. But experts assure: Ukraine is not threatened by a buckwheat shortage, and prices will not "jump" if consumers do not fall for informational provocations and do not create a stir.
In March 2026, the discussion about buckwheat re-emerged in the consumer market. After a weaker harvest in 2025, buyers expect further price increases, while producers and processors talk about the impact of costs and the risks of a rush.
According to open data, the average consumer price for buckwheat groats in February 2026 reached UAH 50.82/kg, while at the end of 2025 it was lower. At the same time, a wide range of prices is forming in retail: in Kyiv's chain supermarkets, the price can range from 48 to 70 hryvnias per kilogram of buckwheat kernels, depending on the sales format and quality.
UNN journalists spoke with Pavlo Koval, CEO of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, and Denys Marchuk, Deputy Head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, to understand the main trends in the buckwheat market.
Details
Experts attribute the tension in the market primarily to the reduction in supply after the 2025 season. According to publications in specialized media, in 2025, the gross harvest of buckwheat in Ukraine was estimated at about 70.8 thousand tons, which is lower than the previous year, and the sown areas decreased.
Economist Denys Marchuk emphasizes that the decline in production was caused not by a systemic failure, but by specific conditions of the season.
In 2025, we grew significantly less buckwheat than in previous seasons. But this factor was influenced by weather conditions, drought.
– he says.
According to the expert, this directly affected the volume of the harvest and the carry-over stocks, which traditionally decrease in March.
At the same time, Marchuk sees no reason to talk about a critical shortage of buckwheat already in March.
I would not talk about a critical shortage of buckwheat among farmers today. It is available, its reserves are sufficient to avoid creating a rush and panic among the population.
– says the expert.
The key argument cited by the expert (in addition to the reserves of this type of grain) in favor of stabilizing the situation is the expectations for the new season.
The next harvest, according to estimates, should be larger, because farmers are increasing their sown areas – summarizes the deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
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Demand and demographic factor, or whether there will be enough buckwheat for Ukrainians
A separate component of the current balance, which Marchuk drew attention to, is the decrease in population due to migration.
Our population has also decreased due to migration. Therefore, even a smaller harvest is enough for us to last until the new harvest.
– he says.
That is, even with a weaker supply, the risk of a sharp deficit is partially compensated by lower demand, but such compensation is not complete: cost factors in the production chain continue to put pressure on prices.
Pavlo Koval, CEO of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, also proceeds from the fact that with the current population, the country can go through the marketing year without disruption of supply.
For the population that is in Ukraine today, we could go through this year more or less without problems.
– the expert is convinced.
He warns about nuances that may arise with the formation of carry-over stocks. In this situation, the market may be sensitive to behavioral factors.
Why do retail prices for buckwheat differ in the country?
A practical question for the consumer is not only the increase in the price of groats, but also why its prices are so different.
Pavlo Koval explains the price range by the structure of the offer.
There is unpackaged buckwheat by weight. This will be one price. And there are packaged groats. Again, in different packaging. And there is also organic buckwheat.
– he says, describing the current assortment.
According to him, retail forms a price pyramid of several segments: from a basic loose product to premium positions, where the cost is pulled up by packaging, sorting, additional quality requirements, and marketing.
Separately, the expert emphasizes the informational influence of media and social networks when it comes to the assortment of buckwheat, its reserves, and pricing policy.
This is a destabilization of the informational price. There is no need to artificially inflate this situation.
– emphasizes Koval.
Processing costs and energy: how they add to the price of groats
In 2026, the factor of energy instability is added to the classic pricing factors (logistics, salaries, credit resources).
Pavlo Koval reminds that buckwheat goes through several stages of processing before reaching the shelf: steaming, roasting, cleaning, packaging. According to his assessment, during periods of power outages, the cost of processing increases, because one kilowatt of electricity produced from diesel generators is 2.5 – 3 times more expensive than electricity from the grid.
At the same time, the expert does not expect that buckwheat should show jump-like rates of price increase only due to energy-intensive technology.
Buckwheat is not distinguished by the fact that the rates of price growth should be jump-like.
– Koval convinces.
His basic scenario, if there is no rush, is a gradual increase within the general food inflation, and not sharp increases against the background of rumors.
A separate problem raised by Koval is the uneven distribution of margins among supply chain participants.
Sometimes, the one who adds the least value gets the largest margin.
– explains the agricultural expert.
This explains why even with a relatively stable purchase price for grain, the final shelf price can move more actively.
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What happened in grain warehouses in winter and how does it affect demand and price?
Another argument against panic deficit is supported by Pavlo Koval's observation of market behavior at the beginning of the sales season.
In December, buckwheat was not sold. Grain lay in warehouses, which no one needed. Demand from processors and retail chains at prices expected by farmers was weak, and only after Christmas did some movement begin.
– says the expert.
That is why the buckwheat market in Ukraine can be uneven in terms of liquidity: at certain periods, demand does not support the desired producer prices, and at other periods, expectations and the media background can quickly increase purchasing activity.
Will Ukraine import buckwheat and which countries will be able to sell it?
The CEO of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation emphasizes: buckwheat import is an insurance option for Ukraine. And this is due to the fact that currently quite few countries are engaged in mass cultivation of this type of grain with an export orientation.
Currently, the most active player in foreign markets in the sale of buckwheat is Russia. However, Pavlo Koval assesses direct purchases from the Russian Federation as unlikely for political reasons, but recognizes the risk of goods entering through third countries.
Theoretically, yes, imported buckwheat can enter the Ukrainian market if the price makes a sharp jump. This is the probability that Russian buckwheat came in transit.
– says the expert.
The mechanics of such a scenario, according to him, are as follows: logistics and repackaging in a third country must be recouped, and this will be reflected in the final price for the consumer.
He also adds that in 2025, Ukraine, according to him, imported very small volumes of buckwheat, and among the largest suppliers he names Peru, India, and Hungary. The scale of these supplies, according to Koval, was incommensurate with domestic consumption, so even with imports, the domestic balance and behavioral factors will remain key for the Ukrainian economy.
Scenarios for spring and summer 2026: smooth growth or temporary price jumps?
In March 2026, two price forecasts coexist in the market.
The first is fundamental. A lower harvest in 2025 and smaller residues, processing costs and energy costs, and a general increase in the price of the food basket will lead to an increase in the price of buckwheat by another 10-25% from the current level by August 2026.
The second is the so-called "behavioral" one. If the information background provokes a rush among the population and Ukrainians begin to actively buy buckwheat in markets and supermarkets in the near future, the market is capable of creating a short-term retail deficit even if there is grain in the system.
If we create a rush demand and a situational deficit from March to April, then we will expect imported buckwheat.
– summarizes Pavlo Koval.
Denys Marchuk, for his part, also urges Ukrainians not to fuel the rush.
There is no need to run and buy significantly more than you consume.
– the expert convinces.
The current picture, according to UNN interlocutors, does not resemble a sudden disappearance of the product from store shelves, but it creates certain conditions for price increases.
If consumer demand remains rational and the 2026 crops actually increase, the market has a chance to go through the season without sharp short-term increases. If, however, rush expectations come to the fore or the share of imported supplies with additional logistics costs increases, short-term sharp increases in retail are possible already in spring.
Here Pavlo Koval describes market behavior as a repeating four-year technological and economic cycle.
After a deficit, there is a need for imports, then farmers increase plantings, and then overproduction and price correction are possible. In 2026, this mechanism manifests itself in the fact that the reduction of areas in 2024-2025 has already affected the supply, and even a rapid expansion of plantings in the spring of 2026 will have an effect only after the new harvest arrives.
– explains the agricultural expert.
Given this, the decisive factors that can affect the situation with buckwheat in Ukraine will be:
- dynamics of retail prices in different segments (loose, packaged, "organic") and expansion or narrowing of the range;
- purchasing activity of processors and trading networks;
- information triggers affecting consumer behavior;
- signals regarding buckwheat areas in the spring campaign 2026, the expansion of which farmers are talking about.
It will also be important whether we see the preservation of demand within usual consumption, and whether there will be no interruptions in energy supply, which make processing more expensive. In this case, the market, according to experts, will go through the season without sharp jumps, although the trend of price increases will remain.
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