Autogas in Ukraine has risen by approximately 2% (about UAH 0.75/liter) on average in a few days, with uneven growth across networks (from +UAH 0.5 to +UAH 2/liter, and at Market gas stations up to +11.3% or +UAH 4). Further dynamics will depend on world prices, logistics, the hryvnia exchange rate, and the speed of wholesale transfer to retail.
The escalation in the Middle East immediately affected the Ukrainian retail market for liquefied petroleum gas (autogas). Within a few days after the aggravation began, prices at gas stations rose unevenly: some networks increased prices by UAH 0.5–2.0/liter, while others maintained previous values, UNN reports.
Current prices and their dynamics
As of early March, autogas at Ukrainian gas stations costs UAH 35.95 – 38.88/liter in the Avantage 7, BRSM-Nafta, Shell, Marshal, and Ukrnafta networks. The more expensive segment was formed by Market, SOCAR, KLO, UPG, and OKKO: UAH 39.50 – 40.99/liter. Compared to February 28, the average price increase over several days is about 2% or approximately UAH 0.75/liter.
The most significant increase was recorded in individual networks:
- AMIC: 36.99 → 37.99 UAH/liter (+1.00 UAH; +2.7%);
- MANGO: 37.79 → 38.29 UAH/liter (+0.50 UAH; +1.3%);
- UPG: 38.00 → 40.00 UAH/liter (+2.00 UAH; +5.3%);
- KLO: 39.60 → 40.60 UAH/liter (+1.00 UAH; +2.5%);
- WOG: 39.98 → 40.98 UAH/liter (+1.00 UAH; +2.5%);
- OKKO: 39.99 → 40.99 UAH/liter (+1.00 UAH; +2.5%).
Prices for autogas remained unchanged in the Avantage 7, BRSM-Nafta, Marshal, Shell, BVS, Ukrnafta, and SOCAR networks. The Market gas station was a special case: there, gas prices increased by 11.3% (by UAH 4) in four days.
Why the market reacts unevenly
As economists and fuel market analysts explain, retail autogas prices in Ukraine quickly reflect external shocks, but at an uneven pace. The main reason is the different procurement and inventory models of the networks. Some operators work with a short replenishment cycle and promptly re-evaluate goods, focusing on current wholesale quotes and import costs. Others have established inventories, longer contracts, or deliberately keep prices down to maintain traffic.
The impact of the escalation in the Middle East manifests through several channels.
Firstly, the risk component in energy and logistics prices is increasing: transportation insurance, freight, and working capital financing are becoming more expensive.
Secondly, autogas as a product is linked to oil refining and global hydrocarbon prices, so changes in oil expectations are quickly reflected in the wholesale segment. Thirdly, the currency factor is important: a strengthening dollar against the hryvnia increases the import component of the cost.
Why some networks "held" the price
Economists explain: for operators with a large customer flow, even a difference of UAH 0.5–1.0/liter can affect the redistribution of demand. Therefore, some players try to postpone the increase until old batches are exhausted or until the market confirms the stability of the new level of wholesale prices.
What the diversity of gas prices in the market indicates
The gap between the lower and upper retail segments currently reaches about UAH 5/liter. This reflects different network policies: some are willing to sacrifice margin for volume, others factor in higher service costs and maintain a premium positioning. At the same time, the speed of revaluation depends on inventory and the procurement cycle: operators with a short replenishment cycle react more often to wholesale quotes, while networks with larger inventories can maintain old prices for several more days.
Sharp price jumps can be the result of a one-time revaluation after a period of price retention or a faster transition to more expensive supplies. Without data on the procurement structure, the exact reason cannot be determined, but the scale of the change itself shows that in some networks, the internal supply cycle becomes the main factor.
What to expect in the future
Experts who study and analyze the fuel market warn: to assess whether the current price increase will turn into a sustained trend, it is worth monitoring: the dynamics of world energy prices after news from the Middle East, international logistics and insurance costs, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar, and the rate at which wholesale prices are transferred to retail.
If external pressure persists, a gradual "pulling up" of prices is likely in those networks that have not yet changed them. And in the event of de-escalation in the region, the fuel market in Ukraine may stabilize.
Recall
Earlier, we wrote that after the aggravation of the security situation around Iran, forecasts of possible fuel shortages and sharp price increases spread in Ukrainian media and social networks. At the same time, frequent price changes at gas stations and an increase in demand are being recorded.
