This spring, Ukraine is expected to see a rise in water levels due to heavy snowfall, which could lead to flooding in some regions. Experts predict a water level increase of 0.2-0.7 meters, as well as possible flooding of residential buildings on the Southern Bug and in Kropyvnytskyi. For Kyiv, the threat of flooding also exists, especially for low-lying areas on the left bank.
This spring, Ukrainians are once again being warned about possible floods and high waters. Due to the large amount of snow, the winter of 2026 has raised concerns about flooding in various regions. Oleg Lystopad, an environmental expert from the ANTS National Interest Protection Network, told a UNN journalist more about how warming can affect water levels in reservoirs and what local residents can do to reduce the risks of house flooding.
According to the expert, specialized services, in particular the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, should assess the real risks. They conduct constant observations, have a network of hydrometeorological posts, equipment, and mathematical models for forecasting.
They conduct regular observations. They have a network of observation points, the necessary equipment, mathematical models, and highly qualified specialists. I recommend everyone use their resource. My estimates are based only on the fact that a lot of snow has fallen in the last two months, and this snow will have to go somewhere.
– explains Oleg Lystopad.
Where a rise in water is already expected
At the same time, according to the data of the Hydrometeorological Center, from February 27 to March 2, a rise in water of 0.2-0.7 meters, and in some places even more, is expected in a number of regions. This refers to the rivers of the Pripyat sub-basin, the Western Bug basin, as well as the Southern Bug and its tributaries.
In addition, in some regions, water may overflow into floodplains (level I danger – yellow). In certain areas, in particular on the Southern Bug river and in the city of Kropyvnytskyi, partial flooding of residential buildings is predicted (level II danger – orange). In the Odesa region, a difficult situation persists on the Tylihul river.
The ecologist emphasizes that the key factor is not only the amount of snow, but also the speed at which it melts. If the warming is sharp, water will simultaneously flow into the rivers, which can cause water levels to rise. At the same time, long-term temperature forecasts remain inaccurate.
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"How quickly it will melt – the situation depends on this. Any specialist will say that the temperature forecast is more or less accurate for a maximum of three days. After that, its probability sharply decreases. Therefore, again, follow official announcements," the ecologist emphasizes.
Is there a threat to Kyiv?
A separate issue is the risks for the capital and coastal areas.
There is a threat. But how exactly it will manifest itself and in what time frames depends on the temperatures in Kyiv and in the upper reaches of the Dnipro and its tributaries. All this is recorded, incorporated into models, and then specialists provide a forecast.
– Oleg Lystopad noted.
The ecologist also commented on the hypothetical scenario of damage to the Kyiv HPP dam. According to him, such models have long been calculated, and the probability of such a development of events is low. And even in the worst-case scenario, flooding will primarily affect the low-lying areas of the capital's left bank.
Even if something happens to the dam, which has a very low chance, it is known which areas will be flooded. These are mainly low-lying areas of the left bank, partly Obolon. The water can rise by a maximum of about six meters. This is the level of the second floor. Provided timely warning, people will only need to go higher and wait it out.
– says the ecologist.
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How to act in case of dangerous floods
The main thing during floods and high waters is to save lives, the expert emphasizes. In case of danger, it is necessary to follow the recommendations of civil defense services, evacuate if necessary, and take care of your property in advance.
"People need to remember that water can rise, and not build anything valuable where there is a risk. A reasonable urban planning policy, restoration of floodplains and peatlands are important. Local residents can influence this by choosing those who will be responsible for the environment and the work of services. Because prevention is always more effective than eliminating the consequences," Oleg Lystopad emphasized.
