Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland have caused outrage in Europe, potentially leading to a "divorce" from America. European officials are considering creating a new alliance without the US, using the "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine as a basis.
US President Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland are pushing Europe towards a "breakup" with America, and with NATO in question, some officials see a "coalition of the willing" as the basis for a new alliance without the US – and considering Ukraine's military might, adding to it, among others, the military might of France, Germany, Poland, and Great Britain, the potential armed might of the "coalition of the willing" would be enormous and would include both nuclear and non-nuclear states, Politico reports, writes UNN.
Details
As with many other failed relationships, since Donald Trump's return to the White House a year ago, it has been a story of disputes, unspoken tensions, and attempts to maintain an appearance of well-being in public.
But for many European governments, including America's oldest and most loyal allies, Trump's threat of punitive tariffs against anyone who tries to prevent him from seizing Greenland was the last straw. A "divorce," in their opinion, "is now inevitable," the publication writes.
In private conversations, frustrated European officials call Trump's haste to annex sovereign Danish territory "insane" and "mad," asking if he is stuck in his "warrior mode" after his Venezuelan adventure, and saying that he deserves Europe's harshest retaliation for what many consider a clear and unprovoked "attack" on allies across the Atlantic.
"I think this is seen as a step too far," one European diplomat said. "Europe is criticized for its weakness against Trump. There is some truth to that, but there are also red lines."
Senior European officials increasingly believe that it is time to acknowledge the truth that Trump's America is no longer a reliable trading partner, let alone a reliable security ally, and to urgently look to the future. "Changes are happening in US politics, and in many ways, they are permanent," according to a senior European government official. "Waiting it out is not a solution. We need to transition in an orderly and coordinated manner to a new reality."
This coordination has already begun, as has a major conversation about what comes next, the publication writes.
Unless there is a radical change in the United States' approach, this process will likely culminate in a radical realignment of the West that will disrupt the global balance of power. The consequences range from transatlantic economic damage due to rising trade tensions to security risks as Europe tries to defend itself without American assistance before it is fully ready, the publication writes.
The United States will also likely incur some costs, for example, through its ability to project hard power in Africa and the Middle East without access to the network of bases, airfields, and logistical support currently provided by Europe.
The future after the US withdrawal
Alongside all the talk of retaliatory measures aimed at US trade, diplomats and government officials in capitals are also contemplating what a long-term break with Washington might bring.
For most, this prospect is painful, ending 80 years of peaceful cooperation, mutual support, and beneficial trade, and dealing a fatal blow to NATO in its current form. Many governments want to save what they can, while Italy's far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is trying to restore relations, the publication notes.
But for some officials, the future of Western allies after the US withdrawal is not difficult to imagine, the publication writes.
Firstly, European states, including non-EU members such as the UK and Norway, have spent much of Trump's second term working in an increasingly effective group that is already operating without America: the so-called "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine. National security advisors from 35 governments are in regular contact, often meeting online and in person, and interacting through less formal text messages, the publication writes. "They are used to seeking multilateral solutions in a world where Trump is a big part of the problem," the publication writes.
The level of trust within these circles is generally high, according to people familiar with how the group operates. And it's not just at the official level: national leaders themselves are rolling up their sleeves and working in new close groupings.
Leaders including Keir Starmer of the UK, Emmanuel Macron of France, and Friedrich Merz of Germany, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Alexander Stubb of Finland, and Meloni of Italy, regularly correspond with each other – often in the same group chat, the publication writes.
Leaders exchanging text messages
"Over the past year, they have developed a well-practiced routine of messaging each other whenever Trump does something wild and potentially damaging," the publication states. "When things start moving fast, it's hard to coordinate, and this group [chat] is really effective," said one person familiar with the arrangement. "It says a lot about personal relationships and their importance."
This "informal but active" system is known as the Washington Group, named after the group of European leaders who visited the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last August.
Their approach over the past year has largely been to remain calm and respond to his policy actions rather than taking the bait of his provocative words, the publication writes. "This spirit greased the wheels of the peace process in Ukraine, with the 'coalition of the willing' coming close to finalizing a framework peace plan signed by the US, including American security guarantees for Ukraine. This is a significant achievement, considering Trump had previously ruled out a US military role," the publication writes.
But the scandal Trump created over Greenland has now tipped the scales, the publication notes.
"Gone is the soft approach to the American president's threats. Even Starmer, usually the most cautious of leaders, called the president's tariff threat 'erroneous,' including, apparently, during a direct conversation with Trump on Sunday," the publication writes.
The Greenland crisis has focused attention on how to move forward without America by its side, the publication notes.
"The coalition of the willing started with Ukraine," another diplomat said. "But it has created very close ties between some key people in capitals. They are building trust, and also a propensity for cooperation. They know each other by name, and they are easy to reach and text."
NATO issue
This format could potentially become the groundwork for a new security alliance in an era when the US no longer supports NATO and European security. The new arrangement would not exclude cooperation with America, but it would also not take it for granted
– the publication states.
Also featured in the text chats with the leaders of the Washington Group is Zelenskyy himself, which introduces another interesting idea. Ukraine is by far the most militarized country among those represented, with a huge army, a high-tech drone industry, and more experience in the realities of warfare than anyone else
– the publication writes.
"While Ukraine has long sought NATO membership, it now seems a lesser prize than it once did, as America's promises to back any security guarantees become less convincing by the day," the publication states.
Considering Ukraine's military might, adding to it, among others, the military might of France, Germany, Poland, and Great Britain, the potential armed might of the "coalition of the willing" would be enormous and would include both nuclear and non-nuclear states
– the publication states.
While Europe's need to defend itself with less American support is, as noted, an old talking point, "a flurry of initiatives and headlines from Brussels has emerged in recent days." Officially, the EU has decided to be able to defend itself by 2030.
EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius proposed a week ago to create a standing EU army of 100,000 people and revived the idea of a European Security Council with approximately 12 members, including the UK. Von der Leyen has touted a new European Security Strategy, although few details have been provided yet.
There is broad agreement that these conversations about a new European security architecture need to happen, and quickly. EU leaders will meet in person at an emergency summit in the coming days to discuss the response to Trump's threats regarding Greenland, although the discussion may be much broader
– the publication notes.
With Trump set to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, there is also the possibility of face-to-face talks between European and American sides, the publication writes.
After speaking with Merz, Macron, Starmer, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, von der Leyen said on Sunday that Europeans would "stand firm" on their commitment to defend Greenland. "We will meet these challenges to our European solidarity with resilience and determination," she said.
Given the current moment, some creative thinking will also be needed, the publication notes.
